Tales from Coalitions, collisions and collaborations debacles
The insidious trend, if not urgently addressed, risks unraveling decades of arduous democratic consolidation and portends grave consequences for the integrity of governance, the delicate fabric of national unity, and the prospect for sustainable economic development.
By Iyke Ibe, Owerri
Confession, l have always consented as a fanatical practicing Catholic is good for the soul, whilst forgiveness purifies the heart.
I confessed of having been in a lost world yesterday, being Sunday, when l made to put this “child of my brain and the product of endeavour” to bed as Sledgehammer for the week. Why? Events and happenings rattled the attentive zone of my mind and filled my being with thoughts after thoughts as acts and scenes met one another at every turn.
Try placing how the week long visit of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Saint Lucia, a Caribbean country as to rekindle bonds based on a significant population of African ancestry vis-a- vis the senseless on going holocaust in Benue and Jos, with one more rubbish of the visit being in tandem with Nigeria’s foreign policy frame work of democracy, development, diaspora, and demography, instantly, “Closing the Empathy Gap in Men’s Health“, as the world observed Men’s Mental Health Awareness, chanced up.
Too quickly for the eyes to follow, unpacking the perils of a budding one – party system gained credence on my billboard, very impossible to ignore. That is the shadow of a single- party dominance over Nigerian democracy looming larger than life,
Nigeria’s vibrant, albeit often turbulent, multi-party system showing disquiet signs, sights and sounds of gradual metamorphosis into a de facto one- party state.
While the facade of a pluralistic political landscape remains, the ascendant dominance of a single political behemoth, coupled with the systematic attrition of opposition strength, cast a long shadow over the future of democratic governance in African’s most populous and influential nation.
The insidious trend, if not urgently addressed, risks unraveling decades of arduous democratic consolidation and portends grave consequences for the integrity of governance, the delicate fabric of national unity, and the prospect for sustainable economic development. The end point – the promise of a truly representative Nigeria hanging in the balance.
Enter the fraying fabric of democratic norms!!!
The unraveling of checks and balances is arguably birthing an asymmetrical power dynamic. The most immediate and corrosive consequence of a burgeoning one- party system is the insidious erosion of fundamental democratic checks and balances. In the absence of a robost and effective opposition, the ruling party operates with diminishing accountability; fostering an environment ripe for unilateral decision making and circumvents essential parliamentary scrutiny and meaningful public consultation.
This dangerous concentration of power strikes at the very heart of the separation of powers, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s constitutional framework designed to prevent tyranny and ensure responsible governance. The potential for unchecked executive power and the marginalization of the legislative and judicial oversight becomes stark realities.
About historical precedents – lessons from Africa and beyond. It is a self- evident truth that similar trends have been observed in other African countries, such as Uganda and Rwanda, where dominant parties have maintained power through a combination of electoral manipulation and opposition suppression.
In these instances, the erosion of democratic institutions has led to human rights abuses, economic stagnation, and social unrest. Nigeria can learn from these examples and take proactive measures to avert a similar decline.
When ballots lose their meaning, it foreshadows the eclipsing of electoral integrity. As one party entrenches its control, the sanctity of the electoral process, the bedrock of any democracy, risks being reduced to a mere symbolic exercise rather than a genuine reflection of the people’s will.
There are increasing, troubling and sickening allegations of manipulation tactics employed throughout the electoral cycle; these include grievous voter manipulation, partisan administration by ostensibly neutral electoral bodies, and unsettling influence of questionable judicial interventions in post-election disputes.
When citizens develop pervasive perception that electoral outcome are preordained, a corrosive voter apathy takes root, creating a self- perpetuating cycle that further solidifies single – party dominance by discouraging participation and dissent. The legitimacy of the government becomes increasingly questioned.
What of the data- driven insights, namely electoral trends and governance indicators? According to the International institute for Democracy and Electoral
Assistance, Nigeria’s electoral integrity has been declining in recent years, with a significant drop in the perceived freedom and fairness and credibility of elections. The World Bank Worldwide Governance lndicators also show a decline in Nigeria’s voice and accountability scores, underscoring the urgent need for action to restore democratic governance.
Looking back from the future on the muzzling of political dissent. The systematic targeting of opposition voices will effectively and efficiently lead to silencing the alternative tendencies. Recent years have witnessed a disturbing pattern of opposition politicians facing what appear to be politically motivated charges, arbitrary detentions, and protracted legal battles.
High- profiled instances of opposition leaders being controversially disqualified from the electoral contests or enduring seemingly endless judicial proceedings raise serious concerns about a deliberate strategy to systematically suppress alternative political viewpoints and cripple the opposition ability to effectively challenge the ruling party. This chilling effect extend beyond individual politicians, discouraging wider participation in opposition politics.
Enter expert perspective, voices from Civil Society. According to a Nigerian democracy expert, Dr. Wole Olaiya, “The suppression of opposition voices is a recipe for disaster. It undermines the very foundation of democracy and creates an environment ripe for authoritarianism.” Civil Society Organizations ( CSOs), such as Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room, have similarly raised alarms about the erosion of democratic space and urgent need for protective action to safeguard Nigeria’s democracy.
When the civil space is shrunk, democracy’s oxygen is constricted. Civil Society Organizations ( CSOs) and lndependent Media Outlets, both, vital pillars of democracy, are facing escalating restrictions through a combination of legal and extra- legal pressures. The enactment of vaguely worded or unduly restrictive legislation, the arbitrary freezing of activists’ financial assets, and the intimidation and harassment of critical journalists cultivate a climate of fears that stifle open political discourse and discourages the exercise of fundamental rights to free expression and assembly. This gradual silencing of dissent dismantles crucial feedback mechanisms essential for holding the government accountable and responding to the citizenry’s needs.
Add the vacuum of competitive policy making – the very perils of Group think. It goes without saying that genuine political competition serves as a powerful catalyst for innovative and responsive governance solutions. In its absence, policy making risks becoming insular, detached from the diverse needs and perspectives of the populace, and susceptible to group think.
Without the rigorous challenges and alternative approaches offered by a vibrant opposition, government programmes often lack thorough scrutiny, leading to inefficiencies in implementation, misallocation of resources, and ultimately suboptimal outcomes for the Nigeria people. The dynamism inherent In multi- party system is lost. Truth be told.
The insidious decay of institutions, loyalty over competence and capacity and entrenched single- party dominance often accelerates the palpable skewed deterioration of critical public institutions as appointment to key position increasingly rely on political loyalty rather than demonstrable competence and merit.
Vital agencies responsible for key functions, such as economic management, national security, and the fight against corruption, become politicized, severely undermining their effectiveness and impartiality. This institutionalized decay disproportionately impacts on ordinary Nigerians through the erosion of public services, the exacerbation of economic hardship, and a decline in overall governance quality.
Welcome to the unholy acts of vicious cycle of corruption and economic regression. Historical evidence overwhelmingly demonstrates that unchecked power creates fertile ground for the proliferation of corruption. Without meaningful and effective opposition oversight, corruption practices, ranging from the inflation of government contracts to the normalization of nepotistic appointments and outright embezzlement of public funds, become deeply entrenched within the system.
Nigeria’s already significant challenges with corruption would likely be dramatically amplified in a one- party scenario, with devastating consequences for economic development and social equity.
Dare me forget the costly erosion of investor confidence? The international business community closely monitors political developments in major economies like Nigeria, recognizing the strong link between political stability and economic prospects. Visible signs of silence of democratic backsliding, the weakening of institutions, and the suppression of dissent send negative signals to potential foreign direct investors, crucial for Nigeria’s economic growth and Job creation.
Likely outcomes include capital flight, increased currency instability, and a significant reduction in over all economic growth, further exacerbating existing problems of unemployment and Poverty. A lot thus give in the very negative.
Still counting – the looming threats to national stability. When political mechanisms fail to address the concerns and aspirations of diverse communities, particularly in the North- East and Niger Delta regions ad South – East frustrations cannot but escalate into violence and extremism.
Locate the cause and effect on lack of inclusive governance and lack of equitable distribution of resources.
The possibility of civil unrest springs up a tipping point for chaos. Historical antecedents and precedents from Nigeria’s past and present marked by widespread protests, strikes, and even violent uprisings, illustrate how public frustration can culminate into chaos.
It is therefore incumbent upon all stakeholders, government, civil society, and citizens to actively engage in the defense of democratic ideals and values, uphold transparency, accountability and rule of law, and promote a political environment that truly reflects the diverse voices of Nigeria’s populace. The commitment to resisting the allure of single – party dominance and nurturing a pluralistic democracy is vital for securing a prosperous and harmonious future for Nigeria.
This is a task that must be accomplished. See why tales from coalitions, collisions and collaborations Debacles the in-thing now, is a welcome development. Get on board and pull ashore with me.
The undeclared kick- off of the 2027 general election campaign is something of false start. But a start nonetheless – one laden with boasts, bluster and outright threats. Recall Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje the immediate past chairman of APC had once boasted that APC and Tinubu’s victory in 2027 is “a done deal.” Today, Ganduje is a creature of history having resigned.
To be fair, the stuffs are from all comers – giving as good as one another gets. In celebrating the bloodless coup of the governor of Akwa lbom Umo Eno’s cross over from PDP to APC without resistance, the Senate President Godswill Akpabio said both governors of Bayelsa and Rivers Shall move into APC. It was not with the appeal of a suitor but with the certainty of the likes office Prophet Elijah. The exodus of defections are shows of shame on the rising numbers of rats fleeing its listing ship.
The dawn of coalitions, collisions and collaborations upon which came forth ADC is a welcome development.
The coalitions must agree on how to proceed and sacrifices must be made directed by critical intelligence. No emotions.The political horse trading under collisions should not be structured on the altars of egos, ambition and ambivalence and the collaborators must not be seen as hangers- on and lay about-confused, yet seasoned politicians. Those of them of the 3Cs ( coalitions, collisions and collaborations) must not blow The opportunity of offering a credible challenge.
They must not be laden with all sorts of baggages, for there is no second chance to make the first impression. Merit, competence and ability do not wear ethnic or religious garments. One thing troubles my mind. I don’t understand why in this our 4th Nigerian Republic, chairmen of major political parties never end well. They always leave in huff. Need l litany them out? The sudden resignation of Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the then national chairman of APC is still shrouded in the womb of time. Through time and space, all the secret thoughts shall be laid bare. Another jigsaw puzzle.
Why would the Vice President, His Excellency Kasim Shettima who has conducted self very well
with loyalty, poise and dignity be swapped as Tinubu’s running mate, come 2027? The only difference between a Nigerian politician and a denizen of red light district – Prostitute is in the spelling, otherwise, they are like the difference between six and half a dozen – no difference. They are the same, QED.
INEC! INEC!! INEC!!! How many times have l called this pain on our arse? Imagine INEC having a list of 110 political parties hankering for registration. What a battle for space and relevance. Chances are, a lot of ballot papers shall turn out spoiled and void. INEC needs reformation. I shall be x-raying that in my next outing by God’s grace. I pray He doesn’t violate His nature.
Lest l forget. I mean the katakata between Governor Simi Fubara of Rivers State and his godfather, Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister. By the way, what were the terms of the settlement and legal undertone brokered by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu?
I had a chance meeting with the Law himself, the very distinguished Silk of an egghead, Ngozi Chidozie Olehi SAN. He is a good wine that needs no bush. If you don’t know him as a SAN who rarely loses any case based on cross fertilization of ideas, then what of as a renowned Public Analyst, otherwise, as a star from Ngor Okpala, willing and able to whether the storm for lmo Governorship race, since Imo Charter of Equity says it is the turn of Ngor Okpala in Owerri zone to take up the mantle by the time His Excellency Hope Odidika Uzodimma bows out. In our interactive session, l accosted him to imagine on the terms that were never officially revealed as per Rivers State crisis.
From the Grapevine, l told him it included ending the state of emergency, restoring Governor Fubara and the State Legislators to their seats, a pledge by Fubara not to seek reelection in 2027, allowing Nyesom Wike to nominate all the Local Government Chairmen and Councilors, Fubara to pay Rivers MPs all their with held salaries and allowances and the MPs in return to pledge not to impeach Fubara.
On all these, he took a deep breath and overwhelmed me with questions that almost made short walk of me.
Hear him. “IYKE, where are then the security issues that triggered off the state of emergency? Did the constitution envisage such a drastic measure merely because of political crisis? Under which party will Wike nominate chairmen and Councilors, PDP or APC? Will Fubara remain in PDP or move to APC?” I spoke into his thoughts that the whole settlement is fraught with the saga of an hoopla that has gone gaga with the voice of Jacob and the body of Esau – confusion.
He fleshened it up. “For Fubara not to seek reelection and for the Rivers State MPs not to impeach him is a hard road to travel. His re-contesting is possible and his impeachment is sure banker. I can’t see the wood for the tree. Meanwhile, time will tell.” At these, I showed him my backside and made off. What a distinguished Silk of Ngozi Olehi!!!
